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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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